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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-15 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since last night. The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical guidance. In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast which remain near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky [ more ]
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