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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction. Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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