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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. The deep convection that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity is held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several more days. The models show little change in strength, and the NHC prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast period. Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours. As the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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