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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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