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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-13 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131453 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue. However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little further, and the environment appears to become more subsident within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise, the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized deep convection to be maintained. The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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