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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to modest northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications suggest that the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm threshold. The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it difficult to maintain organized deep convection. The cyclone also appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which does not favor a strengthening system. Therefore, no changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near or just above the intensity consensus. All in all, there is high confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and northwest at times. The system will be slowing down considerably in a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from day 2 to day 5. Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend. Because of the expected slow motion, however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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