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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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