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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-14 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 120 WTPZ45 KNHC 140835 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 The circulation of the depression was devoid of deep convection for several hours tonight and just recently new convection has begun to develop near the center. Although the Dvorak data T-numbers continue to decrease, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed there were several wind vectors supporting keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The ASCAT ambiguities from the overpass suggest that the low may be starting to become less well-defined, and if deep convection cannot persist for an appreciable amount of time, the system may open into a trough embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The current environment consisting of moderate northeasterly shear, modest moisture, and some subsidence is not expected to change all that much over the next few days. None of the intensity guidance except for the SHIPS makes the system a tropical storm. However, the simulated satellite imagery from various models do suggest that intermittent convection should continue to develop near the center in the near-term, which could provide enough vortex spin-up to keep the system a depression for a little while. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, but it should be reiterated that the system could dissipate or degenerate to a convection-free remnant low at any time. The depression is now moving just south of west at 4 kt and is being steered by a low-level ridge to its northwest. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for the next couple of days. Over the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and with the loss of steering flow, the depression may begin to drift generally northwestward. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and is also near the TVCE/TVCX consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.1N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.7N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 13.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 13.7N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.1N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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