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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-14 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period, though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said, there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift is expected through early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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