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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150238 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus. The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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