je.st
news
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-07 06:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 282 WTPZ43 KNHC 070436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E) that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters. Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since the depression is fairly small. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky. The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance, the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||