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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-26 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261454 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER The depression remains poorly organized this morning with the ill-defined surface circulation decoupled well to the east of the convective mass. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support 30 kt for this advisory. UW-CIMSS shear analysis product shows stiff 20-25 kt of east-northeasterly shear impinging on the east portion of the depression. Both the FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the strong shear will persist through the forecast period. Consequently, little strengthening is expected during the next several days. Because of the vertical direction and magnitude, the forecast tropical-storm-force winds and the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the multi-model intensity guidance, and the global models beyond the 48 hr period which indicate the depression degenerating into a remnant low on day 3, and dissipation by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be a drift east-northeastward, or 065/2 kt. The cyclone is embedded within an northeast-to-southwest oriented cyclonic gyre, similar to a reverse monsoon trough that typically forms in the western Pacific during the summer months. The depression is forecast to drift today in a general east-northeast to northeast direction followed by a turn slowly north-northeastward tonight. A motion toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Afterward, a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. should force the cyclone west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the depression should remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the NOAA HFIP Corrected Consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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