Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261454 CCA
TCDEP3
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020
900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020
CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER
The depression remains poorly organized this morning with the
ill-defined surface circulation decoupled well to the east of the
convective mass. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from
both TAFB and SAB support 30 kt for this advisory.
UW-CIMSS shear analysis product shows stiff 20-25 kt of
east-northeasterly shear impinging on the east portion of the
depression. Both the FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity models indicate that the strong shear will persist
through the forecast period. Consequently, little strengthening is
expected during the next several days. Because of the vertical
direction and magnitude, the forecast tropical-storm-force winds
and the heaviest rainfall should remain offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast follows a
blend of the multi-model intensity guidance, and the global models
beyond the 48 hr period which indicate the depression degenerating
into a remnant low on day 3, and dissipation by day 5.
The initial motion is estimated to be a drift east-northeastward,
or 065/2 kt. The cyclone is embedded within an
northeast-to-southwest oriented cyclonic gyre, similar to a reverse
monsoon trough that typically forms in the western Pacific during
the summer months. The depression is forecast to drift today in a
general east-northeast to northeast direction followed by a turn
slowly north-northeastward tonight. A motion toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday. Afterward, a
mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the southwestern U.S. should
force the cyclone west-northwestward to westward on Friday and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the depression should remain just
offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and
pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur
on Friday and Saturday. The official track forecast is basically
an update of the previous advisory and is nudged toward the NOAA
HFIP Corrected Consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts