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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-09 22:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092038 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018 Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance to the south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface circulation. One-minute imagery from a GOES-16 mesoscale sector was useful in determining that the circulation had become closed. In addition, deep convection has increased near the center today and a nearly continuous band of cold cloud tops wraps around the southern and western semicircles of the circulation. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB is a 2.0/2.0, and on that basis the system has been classified as Tropical Depression Three-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/8 kt, but this is rather uncertain since the surface center of the depression has been often obscured by higher clouds this afternoon. A west-northwest to northwest heading, parallel to the coast of Mexico, is likely for the next few days while the system moves along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should slow and turn more toward the north- northwest, between the aforementioned ridge to the east and a mid- to upper-level trough to the west. The dynamical guidance is very tightly clustered, with the main uncertainty being speed. The official forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF positions and closely follows the corrected consensus, HCCA. The depression is located within a generally favorable environment for strengthening. SSTs are above 30 deg C and there is ample moisture. The only inhibiting factor appears to be moderate northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF models, which should decrease within the next 24 hours. At least steady strengthening is shown by all of the intensity guidance, and this seems likely for the next 24 hours. Beyond that time, rapid intensification can not be ruled out. The official forecast at 36 through 72 h is near the top of the intensity guidance, in close agreement with the DSHP model. By day 5, the cyclone will likely approach a sharp SST gradient south of the Baja California peninsula which should cause it to quickly weaken. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 12.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 13.2N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.3N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.4N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 16.2N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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