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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-24 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little faster than, the consensus models. There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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