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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-25 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 There has been little change in the organization of the depression since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected consensus aid. The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h, the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids, along the northern portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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