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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-25 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA. Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool, dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days, while the global and regional models show only very modest strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least some strengthening since only a small increase in convection can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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