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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-11-15 09:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150845 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Recent satellite imagery indicates that there has been a slight increase in convective banding associated with the depression overnight. The deep convection has increased and become a little better organized over the southeastern portion of the circulation, however, the center remains near the northwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support an intensity of 30 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at that value. The depression has about 36 h in which to strengthen while it remains over SSTs of 28-29C and in generally low wind shear conditions. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and the early portion of the intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid. By 48 hours, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is predicted by the global models as a large mid- to upper-level trough digs southward and cuts off to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The increase in shear should cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it nears the southern portion of the Baja peninsula in about 72 hours. Dissipation should occur shortly thereafter as the shear increases further. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression is moving north- northwestward or 335/5 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge should continue during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone should turn north-northeastward around the aforementioned trough to the west of the Baja California peninsula. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow by 72 hours, it is likely to turn northward or north-northwestward before dissipating. The track guidance has trended a little faster this cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the TVCE and HCCA consensus models. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause in life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.5N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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