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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-11-16 15:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161434 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so. It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the favorable environment so no change was made to the official intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first 24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP model thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.2N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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