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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-18 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the official intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday. Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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