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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-11-05 09:40:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050840 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 The end is near for Vance, as the vertical shear over the area is now over 50 kt. With the rapid spindown of the circulation, the maximum winds are now estimated to be about 30 kt, making the cyclone a tropical depression. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for their country. Vance has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center for about 6 hours, and it will likely become a remnant low after moving inland later today. Complete dissipation of the surface circulation is expected within 24 hours or less. Microwave and shortwave infrared imagery indicate that the cyclone center is located a little to the southeast of the previously estimated track. After some retrospective adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion is estimated to be about 050/11 kt. This northeastward movement should continue until dissipation. Although the tropical cyclone will dissipate soon, moisture from Vance or its remnants should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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