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Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-24 10:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the cyclone will likely have dissipated by then. Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms occurring to the east and south of the center. Key Messages: 1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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