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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-05-28 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014 Amanda continues to gradually lose strength. Deep convection has decreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the cloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning. Dvorak Final T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed maximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt. The low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated in the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear. Slow weakening is expected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the combination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and in line with most of the guidance. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimate being 035/7. A mid- to upper-level trough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving northeastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two. After that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its course and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to its north. Only slight changes were made to the previous official track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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