je.st
news
Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-05-24 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6 hours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense overcast and increasing outer convective banding. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB. In addition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are near 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and this could be conservative. The initial motion estimate is 295/04. There is little change to the track forecast or the track forecast reasoning. Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is shown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous track. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70 percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, with Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical wind shear environment. The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble models also call for rapid strengthening. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for 24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more than currently forecast. After 48 hours, a combination of increasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows a faster weakening than the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||