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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-06-03 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 The coverage and intensity of convection associated with Andres continues to decrease as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB. Increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and a drier and more stable airmass should cause steady weakening during the next couple of days. Andres is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter. The circulation is forecast to become an open trough before the end of the forecast period. Andres is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A deepening mid-level trough to the north of the cyclone is expected to cause Andres to turn northward and decelerate today. As the cyclone becomes a shallow system, it is forecast to turn eastward, then east-southeastward in the low-level flow. The updated track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.2N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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