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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-06-03 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032033 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Despite the limited and diminishing deep convection associated with Andres, a 1304Z RapidScat scatterometer pass indicated at least 50 kt in the western - presumably the weaker - semicircle. Thus it appears that Andres was more intense earlier today than originally analyzed. Current subjective Dvorak and the ADT intensity estimates for Andres have dropped to 35-45 kt. Given the likely low bias indicated in the earlier Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear. Steady weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous advisory. Identifying the center of Andres this afternoon is quite straightforward as the center is exposed southwest of the remaining deep convection. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast. However, the cyclone will shortly be situated within a col region with little steering flow and Andres should meander on Thursday and Friday. In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east. The official track forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered. This new track prediction lies just slightly south of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.9N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 17.9N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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