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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-05-29 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Andres's intensification trend appears to have ceased for the moment. Infrared satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone is trying to develop a banded-eye structure, but the overall pattern really hasn't improved much since the last advisory. In fact, the Dvorak final-T number from TAFB decreased to 3.5, and remained at 3.5 from SAB, so the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt. The storm is moving a little slower to the west-northwest, or 295/8 kt, to the south of the subtropical ridge. A slight weakness in the ridge should allow Andres to move northwestward later today through Saturday night. The ridge is forecast to rebuild, however, and the cyclone will likely move west-northwestward and then westward on days 3-5. There has been no apparent shift in the latest track guidance as there had been in previous cycles, and therefore the updated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one. The SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that a modest amount of north- northeasterly shear is affecting Andres, which could be the reason for the temporary hiatus in strengthening. SHIPS indicates that the current level of shear should continue for the next 24 hours, and after that the thermodynamic environment becomes gradually less favorable for significant strengthening. Due to these less-than- ideal conditions, the latest intensity guidance shows Andres peaking at a lower intensity compared to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has therefore been lowered a bit. Even with this adjustment, however, the official forecast is still higher than most of the models, especially at 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 12.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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