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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-05-29 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291449 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Andres is just below hurricane strength. Although an eye feature is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours. Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric with well-defined banding to the south of the center and limited more fragmented bands to the north of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates and ADT values still yield an intensity estimate of 60 kt. The SHIPS model indicates that Andres is currently experiencing about 15 kt of northerly shear, which is likely part of the reason why the storm has leveled off in intensity for the time being. This shear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but it should lessen some thereafter. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm water. Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier and more stable airmass. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system to weaken. The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move northwestward during the next day or two. After that time, a turn back to the west-northwest is predicted when the ridge restrengthens to the north of the storm. The model guidance is in good agreement overall, and the official forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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