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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-06-28 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 456 WTPZ41 KNHC 281435 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2019 Alvin continues to lose organization as a steady weakening trend has commenced. The satellite presentation has become more ragged and the center is now very close to the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with a blended average indicating a 55 kt initial intensity for this advisory. Alvin is already over SSTs of 24 C and will move over even cooler waters over the next 36 hours. In addition, the latest guidance depicts southwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt impacting the circulation, and this is forecast to increase to over 30 kt in 24 hours. These factors, along with Alvin moving into an increasingly stable atmospheric environment, will result in continued steady weakening into this weekend. By Saturday night, Alvin is expected to become devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Alvin accelerated slightly overnight, with an initial motion of 305/14 kt. This faster motion is expected to be only temporary and the official track forecast is near the clustering of the consensus aids. Alvin will be steered around the southwestern periphery of mid-level ridging to its north through today. Thereafter, a much weaker cyclone will become steered by the lower level environmental flow, which will result in a turn to the west-northwest and decrease in forward speed tonight into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 19.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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