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Tropical Storm Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-06-27 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Recent microwave imagery indicates that Alvin's convective structure has improved over the past several hours, and a 1057 UTC SSMI overpass showed a closed ring of convection around the mid-level center of the small tropical storm. However, the infrared presentation of Alvin has not changed significantly since the last advisory and satellite intensity estimates are also unchanged. The initial intensity is therefore held at 50 kt, in deference to ASCAT data from late last night. The dynamical models (primarily the HWRF, HMON, and GFS) continue to indicate that Alvin could strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours before it reaches much colder waters to the north. Once the tropical storm reaches those waters in a day or so, it should quickly weaken, likely becoming a remnant low around or just after 48 h. The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed substantially since the previous advisory and remains close to the intensity consensus aids. It is worth noting that the small size of Alvin could make it susceptible to short-term swings of intensity, up or down, and once weakening begins it could occur even faster than currently indicated. The official track forecast has been nudged slightly northward, but is otherwise unchanged. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt, and Alvin is expected to continue to move west-northwestward or westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn toward the west as it weakens and becomes steered by shallow easterly flow to the north before it dissipates entirely. The NHC forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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