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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-05-09 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021 The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model guidance. The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the previously estimated track. Andres should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the model guidance on account of the more southward center location. This is not far from the latest GFS model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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