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Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-05-10 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres remains a sheared tropical storm with a small ball of deep convection displaced just east of the partially exposed low-level center. All three scatterometer passes missed Andres. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on consensus subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective intensity estimates of 37 kt and 35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast of reasoning. The latest NHC track model guidance continues to show Andres moving slowly northwestward around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge while gradually weakening and becoming more vertically shallow. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next few days, which is expected to gradually nudge Andres west-northwestward on Tuesday and westward on Wednesday. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models, and the HCCA and GFEX consensus track models. Despite the ragged looking cloud pattern depicted in infrared satellite imagery, night-viz and passive microwave satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation has actually improved a little since the previous advisory. However, the combination of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable low- to mid-level air from the west and northwest is expected to induce gradual weakening later today. Additional weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Andres moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, with the cyclone expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just and update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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