je.st
news
Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-05-10 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101448 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021 Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning. Early visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst of deep convection. Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the eastern semicircle overnight. A blend of the objective ADT and SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt. Hopefully, scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better assess the intensity of Andres. The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now 330/05 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected today as Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest a weakening trend is imminent. Andres is expected to become a tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||