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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-09 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092039 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 Blas continues to decay. The intensity and coverage of the associated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day, and the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the northwestern portion of the circulation. The Dvorak T-numbers are falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt. The storm is currently over cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass. These conditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The global models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when Blas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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