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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-07-10 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016 The cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the deep convection has practically vanished. However, given the vigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated that the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global models and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less. Blas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10 kt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is forecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the low-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could still produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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