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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-07-08 10:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 A burst of deep convection developed over the eastern portion of Beryl's circulation just after the release of the previous advisory. The convective burst has expanded overnight and the earlier exposed center of the cyclone is now located near the northwestern edge of the convective cluster. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to Beryl and should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this morning. The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Beryl during the next 24 to 36 h, and the cyclone will be moving into a drier mid-level environment. As a result, Beryl is expected to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. The tropical storm is moving quickly west-northwestward or 290/17 kt. Beryl should continue on this general heading with some increase in forward speed as it is steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement but there has been some increase in the cross track spread at 24 and 36 h with the GFS and HWRF along the southern edge of the guidance and the ECMWF bracketing the northern side of the envelope. The NHC track is in the middle of the envelope, close to the various consensus models, and in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today or tonight. 2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.7N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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