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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-26 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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