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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-14 04:12:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update of the previous one. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN

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