Home Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18

Keywords :   

Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-14 06:21:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140421 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update of the previous one. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Category:Transportation and Logistics

Latest from this category

All news

17.01Mechanical Engineer
17.01Dissemination Operations Engineer
17.01System and Operations Manager
17.01Thermal Engineer
17.01Executive Secretary
17.01Business Development Manager
16.01Mechanical and Electrical Workshop Service Manager
Transportation and Logistics »
17.01WeWork's Size Gives Startup Public Responsibilities, Zell Says
17.01Surviving the Skilled Labor Shortfall Will Require Contractors to Get Creative
17.01Why the Need for PQ Analysis is on the Rise
17.01Illustrated Catastrophes: Poor House Planning
17.017 ag stories you might have missed this week - Jan. 18, 2019
17.01Sears Says Lampert Wins Auction, Bid Valued at $5.2 Billion
17.01Services and the NEC Part 1 of 2
17.01Stumped by the Code? NEC Requirements of Luminaires Installed in Wet, Damp, or Corrosive Locations
More »