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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-14 06:21:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140421 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 18...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 After steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, with deep convection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the eastern half of the circulation. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has generally changed little in structure since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Bud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. This general motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that should take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur by late Thursday. After that time, a trough approaching the tropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north and north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland Mexico. The models are in very good agreement, and only small adjustments were made to the previous track forecast. Gradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja California Sur. Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the surface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h position is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive that long due to the rugged terrain. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update of the previous one. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 0

2018-06-14 06:21:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140421 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18...RETRANSMITTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 33(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 27(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 18

2018-06-14 06:19:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140419 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 18...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.1 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue on Thursday. A faster northward motion is expected to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late on Thursday and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening storm is expected to make a second landfall over mainland Mexico by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low or dissipate after it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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