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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 19

2018-06-14 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds, and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT data is available over Bud tonight. The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than indicated in the forecast. Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48 hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the cyclone. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2018-06-14 10:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 50 23(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 40 32(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN JOSE CABO 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 5 29(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LA PAZ 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 19

2018-06-14 10:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 109.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 109.4 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as it moves over the peninsula. Bud should degenerate into a tropical depression or a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning later today. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. Bud is also expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango with isolated maximum of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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