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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 19

2018-06-14 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds, and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT data is available over Bud tonight. The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than indicated in the forecast. Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48 hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the cyclone. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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