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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 20

2018-06-14 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud's overall structure and convective pattern have changed little since the previous advisory, with the tropical storm consisting of mainly a large swirl of low clouds and fragmented cyclonically curved bands of moderate convection. Despite this unimpressive satellite appearance, Bud is still producing tropical-storm-force winds in the the convective band in the northern semicircle. A Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a 2-minute average wind of 39 kt and a gust to 53 kt, and also reported 36-kt winds for a 5-minute period shortly after 1200 UTC. The observing site has also recorded a pressure of 1004.5 mb thus far. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory, and the central pressure is estimated to be 1000 mb. Bud has a broad inner-core wind field and a small-scale vortex has been rotating counter-clockwise within the larger cyclonic gyre. After smoothing through all the wobbles of the center, a motion of 345/06 kt is computed over the past 18 hours. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. The model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track and remains in excellent agreement that Bud will gradually turn northward during the next 36 hours around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across north-central Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by 48 hours as the steering flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, which will also act to accelerate Bud. The new NHC forecast track is just a tad to the west of the previous track through 24 hours, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. During the next 24 hours, Bud will be moving over cool waters and interacting with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja California, which should result in a gradual erosion of the deep convection and spin down of the circulation. Some enhanced wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling between Bud's center and the higher terrain of mainland Mexico is possible once Bud's center emerges over the Gulf of California in 24 hours. For that reason, Bud is being maintained as a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 36 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 21.7N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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