je.st
news
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-06-14 22:59:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142059 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily a large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by local terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34 kt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains at 40 kt. Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were required to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday afternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by 36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the previous forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the model guidance suite. Bud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours or so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation, inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of the Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||