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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-06-15 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California Peninsula. There have been a few observations of tropical-storm- force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening. Since that time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n mi north of the center. Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours. This has delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening. Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of Sonora by Friday evening. The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm status for a little longer. By 24 hours, interaction with the terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical depression before landfall over Sonora. Thereafter, the high terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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