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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-06-15 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level center has been left behind over or near Baja. The low-level circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of California and northwestern Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass showed a few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora. Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the southerly flow along the western side of a high pressure ridge. This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for a portion of the mainland. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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