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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-06-14 16:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the previous advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates that the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well. Based on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering currents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge should force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours, the cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and could move inland. Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation of Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global and regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower than the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model. Sea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this morning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled beneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion. The colder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow and modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the short term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected to begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an environment of light shear later today, restrengthening back to hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday morning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall occurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to which Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity model and the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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