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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-06-27 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-23C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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