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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-06-14 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 Cristina's convective pattern continues to degrade, with the remaining deep convection located to the north and northeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates and data from a 1730 UTC ASCAT overpass. Moderate vertical shear and an increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment should result in continued weakening to tropical depression status in about 24 hours. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate entirely by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward toward the new IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 305/05, and a general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue as the weakening cyclone is steered around the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. By day 3, the remnant low should gain a little more latitude as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is a little north of and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the aforementioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 19.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.6N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 23.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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