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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-06-10 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014 Thunderstorm activity associated with Cristina has decreased in coverage and intensity since the evening diurnal convective minimum. Inner core convection has also become less organized, and banding is now less defined. A 0348 UTC ASCAT overpass showed around 30 kt winds, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB is slightly lower than six hours ago. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory, though this may be a bit generous. The initial motion estimate is a slow 275/03. The track forecast is generally straightforward. Cristina is about to move out of a weak steering environment and move westward under the influence of a building mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico at a faster forward speed. By 48 hours...the cyclone is expected to turn west- northwestward when it reaches the western end of the same mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and the GFS solution but not as far left as the ECMWF. UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output indicate light to moderate northerly shear currently over the cyclone which could be interrupting further development. However, global models show Cristina moving into a moist and generally light shear environment while moving over warm waters during the next couple of days, all of which should promote intensification to hurricane strength. In about 48 hours, the cyclone should begin to ingest a pool of drier and more stable air to the west which should bring an end to any further strengthening. An even drier and more stable environment, an increase in southwesterly shear, and marginally warm waters late in the forecast period should contribute to a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is below the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours but near the LGEM beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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