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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-16 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Carlotta remains a compact tropical storm with deep convection confined to a region of about 75 n mi from the center. Although the convection is a little stronger than earlier today, the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value. After moving northward to northeastward throughout the day, Carlotta has now stalled and the latest satellite and radar images indicate that the system is drifting to the southeast. The models insist that a northeastward motion should resume soon, however, and all of the guidance show Carlotta moving inland over southern Mexico by Saturday afternoon. The NHC official track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, due to the initial motion and position, and lies close to the various consensus aids. Carlotta could strengthen slightly before landfall, due to the influences of very warm SSTs and moderate shear, but a quick demise is expected once the system moves inland. Even though a 24-h forecast position is shown below, most of the models dissipate Carlotta by then. The main threat from Carlotta is the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The significant rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.4N 98.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.9N 98.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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