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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-06-16 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 A surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and is not moving as anticipated. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is better organized with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around a small area of convection near the center. T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW/CIMSS are unanimously 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. ASCAT missed it this time. Depending how long Carlotta remains nearly stationary over water, some additional strengthening could occur. Once it moves inland, if at all, rapid weakening is anticipated. The center is difficult to locate, but it has to be very near the given position, since the cyclone has been meandering during the past several hours. The track forecast is highly uncertain and I mean highly uncertain. Deterministic runs of the global models have failed miserably in forecasting the track of Carlotta, at least in the very short term. In the earlier 00 UTC guidance, most of the NHC trackers moved the cyclone northeastward. However, at 06 UTC, most of the available trackers changed and now move the cyclone toward the west-northwest along the coast of Mexico. This shift in track also includes HCCA and HWRF models. The GFS, ECMWF and UK models quickly dissipate Carlotta, so most of the consensus are not available at 06 UTC. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, the NHC forecast calls for little motion in the next 12 hours, and then a gradual northward track toward the coast within the warning area. Although this is a change from the previous NHC forecast, it is not necessary a change in the warnings. Despite the changes in track tonight, the impacts have not changed. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The significant rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.0N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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