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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-06-16 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 161434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Satellite images and radar images from Acapulco Mexico indicate that the overall organization of the storm has changed little over the past several hours. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Water vapor animation indicates that some northerly shear, associated with the flow to the southwest of an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico, is affecting Carlotta. Not much change in strength is anticipated prior to landfall, but we will closely monitor the structure of the tropical cyclone in case some intensification occurs. A center position estimate from a recent 37 GHZ SSMIS image suggests that Carlotta may have shifted slightly to the east. This is also consistent with the winds from a ship observation about 70 n mi south of the estimated center. Overall, however, there has been little motion of the system since last night. Carlotta remains in a region of very weak steering currents with a trough located to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. Most of the global models indicate that the system will move inland or along the coastline within the next day or two. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Carlotta crossing the coastline by Sunday. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected hazards from Carlotta continue to be the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 17.6N 99.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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